Corn market rebounds after months of decline.

The Brazilian corn market is undergoing a transition period after months of price declines. Data from TF Agroeconômica indicates a consistent technical rebound over the past 60 days, although resistance at the R$ 69 level for the second crop still limits more robust gains.

The analysis indicates a well-defined bottom at the lower end of the indicator's range, followed by a gradual recovery, signaling the exhaustion of selling pressure. This movement also suggests that the market is beginning to price in tighter inventories amidst adjustments in the international scenario.

Among the bullish factors, the USDA's projection for the 2026/2027 crop in the United States stands out. The agency estimated a planted area of 38.04 million hectares, below the previous cycle and the market's expected average. Production was projected at 400.19 million tons, below the current record, with ending stocks estimated at 46.66 million tons, also lower than previous forecasts. Ethanol industry demand was maintained at 142.25 million tons, a figure the market is monitoring given the expectation of progress in the release of E-15 throughout the year.

Further support comes from U.S. exports. The USDA raised its forecast for 2025/2026 shipments to 62.27 million tons, a 30.09% increase over the previous year, already representing 74.3% of the total target of 83.82 million tons.

On the bearish side, uncertainty surrounding E-15 weighs heavily. The delay in processing the bill that would allow year-round sales of the fuel has generated frustration within the sector, which views the measure as having the potential to significantly expand demand for ethanol and, consequently, for corn.

Source: Agrolink – Leonardo Gottems Published on 23/02/2026 at 08:21h.