Corn market rebounds after months of decline

The Braziliancornmarket is undergoing a period of transition following months of falling prices. Data from TF Agroeconômica indicate that, over the past 60 days, there has been a consistent technical rebound, although resistance around the R$69 level for the second-crop season continues to limit more substantial gains.

The analysis indicates a clear bottom in the lower range of the indicator, followed by a gradual recovery, signaling that selling pressure is waning. The trend also suggests that the market is beginning to price in tighter inventories amid adjustments in the global landscape.

Among the factors driving prices higher, the USDA’s forecast for the 2026/2027 crop year in the United States stands out. The agency estimated planted acreage at 38.04 million hectares, below the previous cycle and the market’s expected average. Production was projected at 400.19 million tons, below the current record, with ending stocks estimated at 46.66 million tons, also lower than previous forecasts. Demand from the ethanol industry was maintained at 142.25 million tons, a figure the market is tracking amid expectations of progress in the rollout of E-15 throughout the year.

Further support comes from U.S. exports. The USDA has raised its forecast for shipments in the 2025/2026 marketing year to 62.27 million tons, a 30.09% increase over the previous year, already accounting for 74.3% of the total target of 83.82 million tons.

On the downside, uncertainty surrounding E-15 remains a concern. The delay in the legislative process for the bill that would allow the fuel to be sold year-round has caused frustration in the industry, which sees the measure as having the potential to significantly boost demand for ethanol and, consequently, for corn.

Source: Agrolink – Leonardo Gottems Published on February 23, 2026, at 8:21 a.m.