Soybean Market

Soybean prices are up this Wednesday on the Chicago exchange, maintaining the previous day's strong performance. Three factors explain this trend: rising oil prices, driven by the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran; the prospect of China resuming increased purchases of American soybeans, with a meeting between representatives of both countries scheduled for this weekend; and the depreciation of the dollar, which enhances the competitiveness of American products in the international market. However, the price increase is tempered by the substantial global availability of the grain.

The week's main event was the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly report yesterday (10), which presented several surprises. The agency maintained its estimate for Brazilian production at 180 million tons, exceeding market expectations, and did not alter the projection for surplus stocks in the United States — also higher than analysts' forecasts. Globally, world production was slightly reduced. For Argentina, however, the cut in the production estimate was more significant than anticipated.

Overall, the report indicated an ample supply scenario, without significant reductions, which initially disappointed some market participants. The recovery observed throughout yesterday and the continued upward trend today suggest that optimism surrounding trade negotiations between the U.S. and China has outweighed supply data in price formation.

SOURCE: Safras & Mercado, 03/11/2026