Soybean Market

Soybean prices are trading higher this Wednesday on the Chicago Board of Trade, continuing the strong performance seen the previous day. Three factors explain this movement: rising oil prices, driven by the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran; the prospect that China will resume buying more U.S. soybeans, with a meeting between representatives of the two countries scheduled for this weekend; and the weakening of the dollar, which makes U.S. products more competitive in the international market. The rise in prices, however, is being held in check by the ample supply of soybeans on the global market.

The main event of the week was the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly report yesterday (the 10th), which held a few surprises. The agency maintained its estimate for Brazilian production at 180 million tons—higher than market expectations—and did not change its projection for surplus stocks in the United States, which was also higher than analysts’ expectations. On the global front, world production was slightly reduced. As for Argentina, the cut in the production estimate was larger than expected.

Overall, the report showed that supply remains ample, with no significant reductions, which initially disappointed part of the market. Yesterday’s recovery and today’s continued rise suggest that optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations has carried more weight than supply data in determining prices.

SOURCE: Safras & Mercado, March 11, 2026